By Ahmad Mufakir
The landmark Afghanistan’s elections are drawing closer amid widespread speculations of fraud, rigging and insecurity. The crucial polls are largely viewed to be happening at a time when the country is passing through critical phases of history.
Political, military and even economic transition solely depends on successful completion of election process. If the ballot is held in transparent, free and fair way then the country could be put on track to durable stability and development otherwise instability will haunt the nation and country, with ethnic, linguistic and religious divide can further deepen.
In this era of ours, democracy is the best system but in a multi -ethnic, multi-religious and multi-cultural society like Afghanistan, it is the only system which can ensure stability of the country.
Afghanistan is home to various ethnicities and all should demonstrate greater respect for each other’s language, religion and culture otherwise it will lead to chaos in the society. Functional democracies ensure and provide public political spaces for debating and bargaining for peaceful resolution of their issues. Democracy is still nascent in Afghanistan but it is getting roots and navigating toward stability by each passing day. During the past four polls, voters’ turnout was better than other countries in the region while the level of elections related violence was lower than other regional countries.    
It merits mention that the trend of preference of bullet over ballot is changing. Social indicators have improved considerably and culture of tolerance and freedom of expression is somehow getting stability.
For most of Afghan observers, the upcoming elections are of immense importance. First, it is a litmus test for the Independent Elections Commission (IEC) and Independent Electoral Complaint Commission (IECC).
After the recently passed two new electoral laws, it paved way for to ensure transparent, free and fair elections. It will be the first elections under the new IEC and first Afghan-led elections and of course the UN agencies technical support will be there but have no say in the elections results.
Second, the Afghan National Security Forces after the military transition from NATO-led and ISAF forces will be mainly responsible for the security.
If one observed the long queues outside the voter registration centres, then one can come to the conclusion that this time voters’ turn out will be higher than the past elections. Still the situation is not clear who will win the presidential elections while most of the analysts are predicting no candidate can secure clear majority.
All the candidates try their level best to strike a balance and come out with best mix of panels, cross-cutting all the existing ethnic, religious, linguistic and ideological lines but the ethnic and religious factors will influence the outcome of the upcoming elections. No doubt the money will be another decisive factor. 
Youth are expected to play an important role in the ballot. They are active not only in getting the voter cards but also in campaigning for their favorite candidates. Unexpectedly, women in larger number getting their voters’ registration cards. Official sources say some 3.4 million Afghans are registered as voters by the end of 2013, with 34% of them are women.   
As compared to previous elections, polls campaign is not that much live due to several reasons. Elections’ candidates are avoiding big rallies and meetings due to fear of attacks. Most of the times, they prefer to hold close doors meetings in a move to avoid any untoward incident. This time the election is very much digitalized and major candidates’ campaign teams and supporters are widely using social media and other modern means of communication to reach out to more and more people.
It is unclear whether the government has plans for rigging in the elections or it is just rumors? It is pertaining to mention here that the government, the IEC and ECC should do more to restore confidence of public in the elections process.
Amid widespread public perception about looming fraud in elections by the government, some of the candidates and their supporters are using the traditional means of rigging in the elections such as obtaining voter cards for their underage supporters, multiple voters’ cards and buying votes with money.
As usual, some of the presidential and provincial council candidates are violating elections laws by spending more than 1,000,000 for presidential campaign and 500,000 for provincial council campaigns.
The security situation is very fragile and some of the recent high-profile terrorist attacks are further deepening the sense of insecurity among masses.
There are rumors that some elements are bent on to deliberately create law and order situation to terrorize voters in certain areas for achieving their vested interests in the elections.
There is immense enthusiasm among voters to cast their votes but voters’ turnout rate will depend on security situation on the elections day.
Afghans believe on democracy and peaceful transition of power as it is evident from their active participation in the past two presidential and two parliamentary elections. For majority of Afghans, democracy in general and the elections in particular is the best way in which citizens have direct and indirect role in decision-making process.
A public perception survey conducted by the Free and Fair Election Forum of Afghanistan (FEFA) strengthened many perceptions about the deep-rooted political changes in the country.
According to FEFA survey titled “Afghan Perception on Democracy and Elections 2013-2014”, overwhelming majority of respondents supported the idea of elections while only 5% did not support it. Vast majority of respondents (76.5%) expressed their intention to vote in 2014 elections. Only 2% of those respondents who stated that they will not cast their votes in 2014 poll consider the election Haram (un-Islamic).
The security concerns will not deter most of the voters from casting their vote. Some 14% of those who declined to vote stated insecurity and Taliban’s fear are among some reasons to deter voters from going to polling stations.
Despite some shortcomings and weaknesses, majority of Afghans have confidence and trust in the present democratic system. It can be judged from the fact that around 85% of the respondents said Afghanistan is changed for the better during last ten years while only 10% hold the opposite view.  
Aware about the importance of elections, Afghans have also attached high expectations with a hope that the government, the IEC, the candidates and all other stakeholders will play its due role to ensure transparency in elections and pave the way for smooth and peaceful political transition.